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This is a terrible idea. Why on earth am I writing about politics? I guess I enjoy torturing myself.
Here goes …
Biden delivered a great speech at the UN General Assembly. I was happy to see that he kept the tone down and addressed the points as talking points, as opposed to addressing them as moral obligations.
Here are my thoughts …
Russia and Ukraine
Like you, I go back and forth in my mind about this war. I think politicians are terrible about thinking of the second and third order consequences of decisions like this. This war is causing an energy crisis, famine, and conflict between major world powers that is terrifying.
I see and empathize with many of the counter points of helping the Ukrainians. It’s expensive and it’s dangerous and there are good arguments for why we should have stayed out of this conflict. There are times when I have agreed with those notions myself. Ultimately, I think history will look back at Biden and reward him for handling this delicate situation with poise.
This is especially true considering how badly he fucked up the Afghanistan withdraw.
At the end of the day, our stance should be as such. We can’t let peaceful countries be invaded by bigger countries, especially not by autocrats.
The Western world has united in a way that hasn’t been seen since the Cold War, and it’s perfectly reasonable to give Biden the credit for bringing the G7, the UN, and NATO together on this front. It could even be that his age and his experience are what has helped him with this cause.
One final point on this.
American’s are sick of war. We are sick of policing the world. The middle east conflict cost us a few trillion dollars and we got nothing out of it. The lesson for me in all that is to remember that not everyone wants what we want. Some people don’t want democracy. It’s so difficult for us to wrap our minds around this, but it’s true.
But this is not that. Ukraine wants democracy. They have already established a democracy. They are a global trading partner with massive wheat exports and to allow Russia to steamroll in and take it by force would be disastrous. That can’t be allowed. It’s a direct violation of UN charter, and Russian Federation is a member of the UN.
So, like him or hate him, Biden is winning in this front.
The Inflation Reduction Act is the best and most comprehensive climate legislation ever passed. Yes, I agree that calling it the Inflation Reduction Act is incredibly stupid. Nonetheless, this legislation will do more to advance the American clean energy infrastructure that any legislation in history.
Biden is the first president to get anything meaningful done on climate.
This legislation gave him many positive talking points during his speech. The talking points are over dramatized, and realistically, this bill will cost money well before it starts putting revenue back into the system.
But it’s a positive step forward.
Again, Biden is winning on this front.
China is in a terrible position. Most of you probably have no idea how much trouble China is in. They have so many problems right now, but let’s touch on three of them.
An aging population - China demographics are catastrophic. It’s not just that they have a lot of old people, it’s also that they have no young people. Maoism and the one child policy created a huge lop side of the demographic. China’s population is expected to half by 2050. It’s incredible.
In short, they are running out of young people to buy things. It’s going to be really insane to watch how this plays out on the world stage.
China has a real estate bubble - It makes our real estate bubble look like a rounding error. China built their entire economy by building stuff. It was reckless. To make matters worse, since the Chinese citizens don’t trust the Chinese stock markets (they shouldn’t) the majority of people bought apartment buildings that don’t even exist. China is in the process of seizing all the money from their citizens. China is drowning. It’s bad.
China is a massive net importer of food an energy - China doesn’t have fertile farmland and they import almost all of their energy. From a national security standpoint, they are at a much weaker position than they let on. China is scary because they have such a large navy, but in reality, their ships have no where near the capability that the U.S. Navy has.
Theoretically, if a conflict between China emerges, the U.S. could blockage the 4 major straights in the Indian Ocean and China would deindustrialize within 100 days.
Now, obviously none of those things are ideal. The absolute best case scenario for everyone is for the U.S. and China to co exist. It’s what’s best for us and it’s what’s best for the 1.3 billion Chinese citizens who simply want to live their lives and raise their families. But, from the standpoint of Biden’s speech, it puts him in an advantageous position. He is able to promote peace, because the reality is that the Chinese economy needs us much more than we need them.
Granted, American’s will be super pissed if we lose access to cheap Chinese goods, but America can feed itself, keeps its lights on, and we are in the process of building our own chips and semi conductors.
Once Mexico industrializes its own economy, we will still have access to the factories and the cheap labor that we love.
All in all, Biden is in a strong position. He is leading the world community to success in Ukraine, he is carving the path on Climate, and he is in a position of power against the Chinese dragon.
I get it. I’m not in love with Biden either, but his momentum is building at the perfect time.
Let’s hope all this nonsense sorts itself out as quickly and as peacefully as possible. As always, I’ll remind you that we all have more in common with each other than we have differences.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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